Publications
Short-Run Effects of Parental Job Loss on Child Health (with Jessamyn Schaller)
American Journal of Health Economics, 2019. A previous version circulated as NBER Working Paper No. 21745
Policy Brief
Abstract: Recent research suggests that parental job loss has negative effects on children's outcomes, including their academic achievement and long-run educational and labor market outcomes. In this paper we turn our attention to the effects of parental job loss on children's health. We combine health data from 16 waves of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, which allows us to use a fixed effects specification and still have a large sample of parental job displacements. We find that paternal job loss is harmful to children's physical and mental health, particularly among children in low-socioeconomic status (SES) families. By contrast, we find that maternal job loss does not have detrimental effects on child health. Increases in public health insurance coverage compensate for close to half of the loss in private coverage that follows parental displacement, and we find no significant changes in medical care utilization.
American Journal of Health Economics, 2019. A previous version circulated as NBER Working Paper No. 21745
Policy Brief
Abstract: Recent research suggests that parental job loss has negative effects on children's outcomes, including their academic achievement and long-run educational and labor market outcomes. In this paper we turn our attention to the effects of parental job loss on children's health. We combine health data from 16 waves of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, which allows us to use a fixed effects specification and still have a large sample of parental job displacements. We find that paternal job loss is harmful to children's physical and mental health, particularly among children in low-socioeconomic status (SES) families. By contrast, we find that maternal job loss does not have detrimental effects on child health. Increases in public health insurance coverage compensate for close to half of the loss in private coverage that follows parental displacement, and we find no significant changes in medical care utilization.
Working Papers
Dynamic Incentives in Retirement Earnings-Replacement Benefits (with Andres Dean and Sebastian Fleitas)
Abstract: Many defined-benefit pension systems in developed and developing countries use a small set of final years of earnings to compute pension benefits. This provides dynamic incentives to report higher earnings in the final years of the career. In this paper, we document the responses of self-employed and employed workers to these incentives, using social security administrative records and household surveys from Uruguay. We implement event studies that leverage the use of a 10-year benefit-calculation window, combined with the discrete change in the probability of retirement at the minimum retirement age. We find that reported earnings of self-employed workers and employees of small firms start increasing sharply 10 years prior to minimum retirement age, reaching a 3% increase on average. This is not the case for employees of large firms, where earnings underreporting is less prevalent. These responses are not explained by changes in total earnings or hours of work, as reported in household surveys, suggesting a change in reporting behavior. Back of the envelope calculations for the self-employed bound the cost of these responses between 1.9% and 2.6% of the total cost of pensions for this group.
Abstract: Many defined-benefit pension systems in developed and developing countries use a small set of final years of earnings to compute pension benefits. This provides dynamic incentives to report higher earnings in the final years of the career. In this paper, we document the responses of self-employed and employed workers to these incentives, using social security administrative records and household surveys from Uruguay. We implement event studies that leverage the use of a 10-year benefit-calculation window, combined with the discrete change in the probability of retirement at the minimum retirement age. We find that reported earnings of self-employed workers and employees of small firms start increasing sharply 10 years prior to minimum retirement age, reaching a 3% increase on average. This is not the case for employees of large firms, where earnings underreporting is less prevalent. These responses are not explained by changes in total earnings or hours of work, as reported in household surveys, suggesting a change in reporting behavior. Back of the envelope calculations for the self-employed bound the cost of these responses between 1.9% and 2.6% of the total cost of pensions for this group.
Short and Medium Run Impacts of Preschool Education: Evidence from State Pre-K Programs
Submitted. Blog post
Abstract: I study the effects of state preschool programs on child development, health, and academic progress from ages 5 to 12. I leverage variation in the timing of implementation of pre-K programs across states to look at the effects of a large and representative group of programs, using data from state legislatures and two national household surveys. I find that availability of pre-K programs improves developmental outcomes and causes persistent reductions in grade repetition. My results also suggest increased health problems only in the short run. I provide bounds for policy-relevant local average treatment effects that imply large effects.
Submitted. Blog post
Abstract: I study the effects of state preschool programs on child development, health, and academic progress from ages 5 to 12. I leverage variation in the timing of implementation of pre-K programs across states to look at the effects of a large and representative group of programs, using data from state legislatures and two national household surveys. I find that availability of pre-K programs improves developmental outcomes and causes persistent reductions in grade repetition. My results also suggest increased health problems only in the short run. I provide bounds for policy-relevant local average treatment effects that imply large effects.
Means-Tested Programs and the Distribution of Reported Earnings in a Context of High Informality (with Marco Manacorda and Andrea Vigorito).
Abstract: Standard labor supply theory predicts that welfare programs have negative effects on labor supply and earnings. However, available evidence does not support this prediction in developing countries, where there is a high proportion of unregistered employment. We study how formal labor supply and earnings respond in the extensive and intensive margins to a means-tested cash transfer program, the Uruguayan PANES. We take advantage of the regression discontinuity design of the program and rich administrative records, to causally identify responses to exposure to the program. We find that eligible households respond in the extensive margin, by reducing formal labor supply and switching to informal employment. In the intensive margin, we find no evidence of bunching at the threshold of the income test or reduced reported earnings conditional on working. We propose a simple discrete choice model of formal and informal labor supply that can rationalize our findings by incorporating optimization constraints, and which provides policy-relevant predictions.
Abstract: Standard labor supply theory predicts that welfare programs have negative effects on labor supply and earnings. However, available evidence does not support this prediction in developing countries, where there is a high proportion of unregistered employment. We study how formal labor supply and earnings respond in the extensive and intensive margins to a means-tested cash transfer program, the Uruguayan PANES. We take advantage of the regression discontinuity design of the program and rich administrative records, to causally identify responses to exposure to the program. We find that eligible households respond in the extensive margin, by reducing formal labor supply and switching to informal employment. In the intensive margin, we find no evidence of bunching at the threshold of the income test or reduced reported earnings conditional on working. We propose a simple discrete choice model of formal and informal labor supply that can rationalize our findings by incorporating optimization constraints, and which provides policy-relevant predictions.
Work in Progress
Children's health insurance coverage and health expenses after parental job loss: Are families landing in or falling through the safety net? (with Chloe East, Elira Kuka and Jessamyn Schaller)
